America's Dalliance With Dictators, A Love Affair - National Interest, Machiavelli, And Realpolitik

There is no doubt that Vladimir Putin is an autocrat, but a dictator?  For that he would have to be compared to Stalin, Mao, Assad, Idi Amin, and the raft of despots who have ruled Africa since its independence.  That is a rather unique club, one whose prisons are nasty hellholes filled with political prisoners, whose judicial process includes the rack, and whose democratic intentions are nil. 

Just recently (December 2024) the prisons of Bashir-al-Assad were opened for inspection by rebel forces which had taken over the government, and they found medieval dungeons, instruments of brutality and inhuman torture, foul, cold, and barbaric living conditions, no light, and the reek of  bodily wastes.

During the long, protracted civil war in his country, Assad gassed thousands of civilians and slaughtered many more.  The prisons were for minor dissidents, journalists, clerics, and lesser opposition figures.  In all this Assad presented a civilized face to the rest of the world which engaged him only desultorily. Syria was a land politically and ethnically fragmented, with shifting allegiances, foreign alliances, and constant internecine struggle.  Getting involved there would be a disaster for there was no one clear path to democratic reform.  The more likely outcome of the turmoil in Syria would be radical Islam, but how to prevent that while neutralizing the barbarism of Assad?

The United States has been complicit in decades of African misrule, mismanagement, corruption, and autocracy. In its desire for trustworthy allies, it has befriended and supported dictators throughout the continent to safeguard and promote American commercial and economic interests. Oil, precious metals, and other natural resources have become political commodities in the international marketplace, and the US is a major player.

Under pressure from the African American lobby and its progressive political allies, Democratic administrations have desperately tried to show their support for African regimes which are 'democratic'. Not surprisingly, given this bias, they have made foreign policy with blinders on. Hillary Clinton made a disastrous mistake in Mali, loudly cheering for President Touré even though many Western observers knew that he was a corrupt despot.  Bruce Whitehouse (London Review of Books) wrote: 'It turns out that many of the democratic reforms and institutions were shams and used by canny politicians to keep the sluice gates of foreign assistance flowing.'

‘A fish rots from the head,’ Malians say. To keep the aid money flowing, Touré maintained a veneer of progress. His government at first boosted the number of children enrolled at school, which pleased donors, but never invested adequately in the country’s dilapidated education system. Only 12 per cent of students passed the high school leaving exams this year, the lowest rate ever recorded. 

Touré purchased a temporary peace in the north but never made good on promises to reduce the acute poverty there. He accepted millions of dollars of US military aid, which was supposed to be used to drive out al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, but he never actually went after the group’s encampments. The military itself was racked by nepotism, and officers often skimmed off their soldiers’ ammunition and pay.

Dictators prevail throughout the region and not only that continue to receive aid from the United States, aid which serves to keep them in power

The leader of Ethiopia who either died or was murdered was a dictator, and despite years of misrule, was the beneficiary of billions.  Idriss Deby, the dictator of Chad played the US and the World Bank for fools, duplicitously agreeing to a gas-for-reform agenda and then reneging completely and continuing his despotic rule over one of the poorest countries in Africa..  The lionized Kagame presides with a repressive regime which muzzles opposition.  He has lied or distorted reports about his support of anti-government clandestine military operations in the Congo.  There are many more examples.

 Other long-serving aid-receiving dictators included Idriss Déby in Chad ($6 billion in aid between 1990 and 2000), Lansana Conté in Guinea ($11 billion between 1984 and his death in 2008), Paul Kagame in Rwanda ($10 billion between 1994 and the present), and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda ($31 billion between 1986 and 2000) 

At the same time dictators keep the peace, and the United States was quite complaisant during the Duvalier family years in Haiti. Papa Doc Duvalier and his son assured that Haiti remain an idyll, an irresistible mix of voodoo, Africa, and La France d’Outre-Mer. The Tonton Macoute, henchmen of the Duvaliers, secret police more brutal and threatening than Sevak or Stasi ever were, maintained order, enforced loyalty, and kept the island a secure redoubt of Duvalierism.  

American diplomats and development workers elbowed each other for opportunities to visit Haiti, and lovers went everywhere without a second thought – dancing in Carrefour, dining at the best restaurants in Petionville and Kenscoff, spending weekends in the cabanas of Cormier Plage and Port-Salut. The anger, resentment, and civil violence which were to erupt after the Duvaliers were gone were unseen and unspoken.  There were only pleasures, the assumption of idyll, the complete exercise of romance.  For the foreigners who visited, that is, who stayed at the Olaffson, who dined at Cote Cour, Cote Jardin, who ate lambi creole and bouillabaisse by the port, and who slept with their verandah windows open.

The billions of dollars in foreign aid has been largely used to keep the peace and to assure a compliant government, one with control of valuable rare earth materials, oil, and gas. Donors have been anxious to keep African countries friends of democracy in perpetuity, and allowed them to rule with impunity. The guarantee of civil order, fondness for the West, and a continuing supply of energy, rare earth materials, and precious gems have been enough contractual security for the United States and the EU.

Where dictatorship has broken down, civil war has broken out.  Ethiopia and Somalia once under militant dictatorships, have been in a state of perpetual conflict for decades. 

Africa is not alone in this phenomenon.  Thanks to Soviet support and his own bullying, intimidating character, Marshal Tito gained absolute control of Yugoslavia.  Not surprisingly when the Soviet Union disintegrated and Tito’s power was no longer absolute, civil war broke out between and among the former republics of Yugoslavia. Autocrats and dictators keep the lid on dissent and unrest until they are gone.

Modern day autocrats are many, powerful, and immovable.  Putin in Russia, Xi in China, Kim in North Korea, Erdogan in Turkey, and the imams and mullahs in Iran rule with absolute power and authority.  History has shown that it will take more than ill-advised military adventures or ham-handed civil rule to depose them.

It is better to leave them alone.  Russia will eventually win the war in Ukraine, a war not fought over democracy as President Biden has claimed, but over the rare earths that Ukraine possesses - elements essential for the operation of cell phones and computers - and their production of wheat and other grains.  The United States has been unwilling to confront Russia directly, so will have to accept the eventual capitulation of Zelensky.  Incoming President Trump will negotiate such a settlement, and do whatever he can to assure a modicum of sovereignty - and access to the rare earths - for Ukraine. 

China, is now the most powerful country in the world and dealing with its autocratic president is essential given China's significant holdings of US debt, their steamrolling control of natural resources throughout Africa, and its militancy in the South China sea. 

Turkey, a rising power in the Middle East is governed by another autocrat, but given his weight, influence, and military power in the region, America must remain on a good footing with him. 

It is not that America loves dictators, but understands the good and bad of their rule.  Donald Trump, a good Machiavellian, heir to Kissinger's realpolitik, and America first nationalist will eschew any high minded talk of democracy and see how to exact the best deals with the world's autocrats